Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
